Leaders of the technology industry gathered at the 20th anniversary celebration conference and forum of Taiwan Yushan Science and Technology Association held at Taipei International Convention Center on April 26. Due to the recent noise in the semiconductor industry, including demand, price rises and so on are the focus of on-site media attention, LJMC Chairman Huang Chongren said in an interview after the meeting, the demand for cars is difficult to calculate, and will be short to the end, but also confirmed that the next year (2022) will continue to raise prices to a reasonable price.
Recently, many foreign investors issued reports that the semiconductor business is about to peak, and there is some pressure in the fourth quarter. In response, Hwang said that although it is not clear when the semiconductor business will peak, it is certain that the car (referring to automotive electronics) will continue to be short. He further explained that under the trend of automatic driving, electric vehicles, AI, 5G, energy saving and carbon reduction, automation and so on, more and more software and Chip are needed for cars. No one has properly calculated the capacity needed for this piece, and it is difficult to calculate.
Frank huang said, in fact, the current general auto chip gap has been filled, but in the process of China's factories desperately in acquisition chip, for unknown reasons, but now the so-called chip gaps, mainly in the field of electric vehicles, AI, such as high order models, these needs were not in semiconductor supply factory within the scope of supply chain or prediction.
A few other cars cannot be delivered, and the shortage is mainly of lower-grade, generic chips. Frank huang said, "this kind of chip" already capacity does not exist ", and therefore the President of the United States Joe biden, even so many times a White House meeting didn't also can solve related problems, and the future in the face of 2050 automobile comprehensive zero emissions targets, "this is the beginning of another demand, carbon reduction for industrial supply is a very serious problem."
Huang Chongren pointed out that the current stock imbalance, although mobile phones, NB, Display down, there are other things out of stock, especially automotive electronics is more difficult to estimate the actual demand, like the first face of stock is power management IC, it can also be said that the real demand is just beginning to increase now.
In terms of the industry ecology, frank huang pointed out that the AI, drive system and other equipment requires chip supply, how many, but has never communicate with semiconductor industry need now encountered situation is "the most expensive, now the problem is not cheap chip", 40 nanometers chip for power control, for example, "even the mainland don't do this", It would also be a big investment to set up a factory for the need to make chips below 28 nanometers.
Asked if prices would continue to rise next year, Mr Huang replied: "Of course!" In his opinion, the semiconductor manufacturing industry has such a large investment and risk, but the margin is less than IC design, which is a ridiculous thing. I hope the manufacturing industry can get a reasonable price.
Second - line foundries next year Q1 price increase
Semiconductor industry is the length of material, part of end products such as the kinetic energy and cooling of interference, but wafer foundry production capacity is still in short supply, TSMC has said will have continued to tight release capacity of next year, umc, semiconductor manufacturing, such as the world's advanced recently to negotiate with the client in the first three months of next year contract price, also will continue to rise in price, some hot process increases more than 1, It is clear that the first quarter of next year wafer foundry will not be weak season.
TSMC said at the meeting made clear that in a few days ago, the client will continue to chip, high inventory levels, and in 5 g/high performance computing (HPC) applications, semiconductor continued growth period, combined with relevant product chip content increased, TSMC because of advanced technology, operation will grow substantially, and forecast capacity continued tight next year, the customer not only can accept price, Willing to advance payment also increased.
TSMC told customers in late August that it had raised prices by 20 percent for mature processes and about 8 percent for advanced processes under 7 nanometers, a strategy it will continue next year. Umc, LJIC, World Advanced and other foundries have been discussing foundry prices with customers in the first quarter of next year. They also follow TSMC's price increase, which is estimated to increase by 8%-10%, and some popular foundries will increase by more than 10%.
The industry pointed out that the personal computer, intelligent mobile phone production chain, such as slow delivery due to any length material, but the wafer foundry production still in short supply, including the driver IC, power management IC, power semiconductors, image sensor, rf IC, microcontroller (MCU), and other requirements are still popular, output time is stretched, customers not only there is no room for bargaining, More dare not cut orders at will, because as long as the order volume is cut, the capacity will be replaced by other customers soon.
Liandian is expected to hold the law on 27 days, and announced the third quarter earnings, the third quarter consolidated revenue of 55.907 billion yuan, a single quarter record high, the industry is expected to profit is also bright, but foreign capital this week every day to sell liandian, a total of 5 trading days to sell more than 80,000 pieces, the stock price also lost 60 yuan level, yesterday closed 58.3 yuan.
In addition, Morgan Stanley is also bearish lJIC, think the fourth quarter revenue and profit will peak, next year will lose pricing advantage, but from lJIC wages can continue to rise in the next year, it seems to face foreign capital.