In 2021, the new crown pneumonia epidemic will severely impact the production capacity of the United States, Southeast Asia, South Korea and Japan where the chip manufacturing industry is concentrated. The cold wave in Texas in the United States and a fire at the chip factory in Ibaraki in Japan have made the chip industry worse.
In 2019, the normal cycle of chip delivery is 6 to 9 weeks. According to research published by the market analysis agency Heiner International Group, the average delivery time for chip orders in July 2021 has been extended to 19 weeks, and by October, the average delivery time has increased to 22 weeks. And the delivery time of chips in December 2021 has increased by 6 days compared with November, reaching about 25.8 weeks, which is the longest time since the company started tracking data in 2017.
Haina recently changed the method of calculating delivery time, added more data sources, and revised the previous estimate based on the new system. Heiner analyst Chris Rowland said in a research report on the 4th. "Almost all product categories have a record delivery date, with power management and microcontrollers (MCU) being the most prominent."
The electronics industry is seriously affected by the lack of cores. For example, Apple’s 2021 iPhone 13 Pro series of mobile phones and Macbook Pro notebooks have extended the delivery cycle by 2 to 4 weeks. The automotive industry is also suffering. The forecast issued by the American consulting firm Arrow Platinum shows that the shortage of chips will cause the global automotive industry to lose 210 billion US dollars in revenue in 2021. It is predicted that the total global auto net production will decrease by 7.7 million vehicles in 2021.
Indian automaker Suzuki India released a report saying that its total sales in December 2021 were down 4% from the same period in 2020. The current supply shortage of semiconductors and electronic components facing the entire industry has not been significantly alleviated and will continue for some time. "The problem of semiconductor-related parts is still a challenge for the industry, and it is still our main focus area." said Nakola, CEO of the Indian automaker Mahindra Automotive Division. The executive director of Tata Motors, a local Indian car manufacturer, said, "The continued shortage of chips and the increase in the epidemic will put pressure on domestic demand in India."
The long-term shortage of various types of chips has not only hit manufacturers' production capacity and logistics and transportation due to epidemic restrictions, but has also been driven by the rapid drive from the digital transformation of enterprises and the surge in demand for consumer electronic equipment. Deloitte pointed out in the report that a variety of semiconductors will be in short supply from mid-2021, especially the shortage of high-end 3nm, 5nm and 7nm process chips, which has caused a cumulative economic loss of more than US$500 billion. Deloitte expects that the prices of all grades of chips will increase across the board in 2022. In order to meet the demand for emerging chips, investment in the semiconductor market is heating up. Deloitte predicts that in 2022, the Global Venture Capital Agency will invest more than US$6 billion in semiconductor start-ups.
Intel CEO Gelsinger predicts that the chip shortage will continue until 2023. AMD’s Chief Technology Officer Peppermaster also predicts that the chip industry may eventually achieve a balance between supply and demand in 2023, and the core shortage will end at that time.