Intel officially announced the mass production of the Intel 4 process in the second half of this year, and expects to mass-produce the 1.8nm process in two years, which is expected to quickly follow the footsteps of TSMC, and this is just after TSMC handed over confidential data to country M. At this time TSMC may have clearly recognized the importance of chip companies in mainland China. At the beginning of this year, when the chip manufacturing capacity was still tight, it allocated a lot of advanced process production capacity to chip companies in mainland China.
Intel has long been a global leader in advanced manufacturing processes. However, since the mass production of the 14nm process in 2014, it has stopped moving forward. The 10nm process has been delayed for more than 4 years until the end of 2019. Mass production, 7nm (now Renamed Intel 4 process) was also delayed from last year's original plan to 2023.
However, since last year, due to the pressure of country M, TSMC and Samsung have agreed to hand over confidential data, and at the same time went to country M to set up a 5nm process factory. However, less than half a year after they handed in the confidential data, Intel unexpectedly announced that Intel The 4 process will be brought forward to mass production in the second half of this year, while accelerating the mass production process of the 1.8nm process.
TSMC said that after the mass production of the 3nm process in the second half of this year, it is expected that the research and development of the 2nm process will be delayed, which means that it will not be able to mass produce the 2nm process until 2025 or later, while Intel announced that its Intel The 18A process will be mass-produced in 2025, which means that Intel may overtake TSMC on the 1.8/2nm process, and the two generations of chip manufacturing processes are quite coincidental with the time when TSMC and Samsung handed over confidential data. It makes you feel the subtlety of it.
Not only that, the US$52 billion subsidy previously agreed by country M will be allocated to TSMC and Samsung, but with Intel actively lobbying to emphasize that country M's chip subsidies should all be provided to chip companies in country M, the US$52 billion subsidy can Whether or not to allocate some to TSMC and Samsung has become a problem, which makes TSMC quite regretful.
Zhang Zhongmou, the recently retired founder of TSMC, has continuously spoken out, pointing out that it may be a mistake to go to M country to set up a factory. Due to the high cost of M country, it is likely that the factory set up in the country will be difficult to make money. Industry insiders pointed out that Zhang Zhongmou's voice represents the TSMC may have regretted going to M country to set up a factory.
TSMC had no choice but to go to M country to set up a factory at that time. Since September 15, 2020, when it was no longer able to OEM for Huawei, Chinese mainland chip companies have also withdrawn their orders, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of revenue contributed by mainland Chinese chip companies to TSMC from 22%. It dropped to 6%, while the revenue contributed by chip companies in M country to TSMC soared to nearly 70%, of which Apple’s revenue accounted for 24% of TSMC’s revenue. In addition, TSMC also has some equipment and technologies from country M. All forced TSMC to obey the requirements of M country to enter the M country to set up factories.
Today, with the possible changes in the allocation of US$52 billion in subsidies, TSMC is also rapidly changing its attitude. At present, its advanced process capacity is still quite tight. Even AMD, nvidia and many other chip companies in M countries are willing to pay foundry fees in advance to ensure production capacity. However, this year, TSMC has aggressively allocated advanced process production capacity to chip companies in mainland China.
The first quarter results announced by TSMC show that the proportion of revenue contributed by mainland Chinese chip companies to TSMC has soared from 6% in 2021 to 11%, an increase of more than 80%. It seems that TSMC has finally realized that it is too dependent on the existence of chip companies in M country. Risks, and part of the 6nm and 5nm process capacity will be allocated to Chinese mainland chip companies, hoping to use Chinese mainland chip companies to check and balance chip companies in country M and reduce the current risk of relying too much on chip companies in country M.
In fact, TSMC should have recognized this risk long ago. For any enterprise, relying too much on any single market is not conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise. Now TSMC has finally accepted this risk, and it has also changed its attitude quickly to support chips in mainland China. Enterprises hope to obtain more orders from the rapidly developing chip market in mainland China, diversify performance risks, and ensure the long-term interests of enterprises.